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TALLRITE BLOG
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This week a huge
jamboree kicked off in the delectable Indonesian holiday island of Bali.
More than 190 countries have sent along senior representatives, and then
there are the NGOs and other special interest groups. Thus the whole
conference will probably host somewhere in excess of 1500 earnest people,
travelling in from all the corners of the globe, each flying
an
average of perhaps 13,000 km round trip (the
transatlantic span). According to the
CarbonNeutral Company such a return flight - on a commercial airliner - produces 1.2 tonnes of CO2 per person on
board. So, roughly speaking, even if you exclude private jets, spouses, boyfriends,
girlfriends, mistresses, toyboys, journalists, cameramen, commentators and
myriad other hangers on, the conference in Bali will generate nearly two
thousand tonnes of that environment-unfriendly special gas, not to mention the delegates' unlimited
hot air emitted in the conference hall.
Not
bad for a UN summit attempting to broker a worldwide deal to defeat climate
change and replace the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012. And while
they're there, you can be sure they'll be enjoying some out-of-season global
warming on Bali's beautiful beaches.
The event bears the enigmatic name COP-13,
where COP stands for the equally enigmatic
“Conference of
the Parties”.
COP-13 participants will vigorously
maintain that the overwhelming scientific consensus is that global warming
is a man-made, man-controllable phenomenon. This conclusion is mainly
based on the series of reports produced this year by the
UN Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). Nearly 4,000 scientists from 130 countries
have helped to produce these, which certainly makes the enterprise
feel like there is an
“overwhelming scientific consensus”.
Until you realise that dissenting scientists - and there are very
many of them - have been deliberately excluded and ignored. Moreover,
where the dissenters are largely reviled in the media and typically starved
of the money they need to pursue their own climate change research, those
who keep the faith are showered with almost limitless funds by governments
and corporations anxious to prove their green credentials. Why, they
will even get awarded Oscars and Nobel peace prizes.
So no, there is no scientific consensus on
climate change. Not yet; not by a long shot.
Just in time for COP-13, the UN Development Programme has produced a
massive 400-page door-stopper, its annual
Human
Development Report 2007/2008. It's opening sentence sets the tone:
“Climate change is now a scientifically established fact.”
No it's not - see above. And neither is how to fix it.
The rest of the report goes on to explain the catastrophe
we're all facing and how we have to cut back on our CO2 emissions to save
the planet for future generations, blah, blah, blah.
There is of course a pivotal issue of whether anything
humans do or don't do will have the slightest effect on a climate dominated
by
that massive violent nuclear-exploding star, a mere
333,000 times heavier than the earth, which we call the sun.
But, putting that aside, the question I would always put to members of what
I call the
cult of climate changeology when they advocate various mitigation
measures, is whom do you think you're helping? After some mumblings
about mother-earth, great-grandchildren, flora, fauna and so forth, the
world's poor people always emerge at the top of the list.
And of course, nowhere on the list can the rich be found, for the
simple reason our Western capitalistic decadence has made us wealthy enough
to take measures to protect ourselves from the ravages of climate change,
whether by installing powerful air conditioning, moving up a mountain,
building our houses on stilts, buying a boat, desalinating our water,
translocating to tropical Siberia, whatever it takes.
The HDRP 07/08 report is no different in stressing that the
main and moral purpose of fighting climate change is to help those who are
too poor to help themselves:
“Millions of the world’s poorest people are already being
forced to cope with the impacts of climate change ...
“Climate change will undermine international efforts to combat
poverty ...
“Failure [to deal with climate change]
will consign the
poorest 40% of the world’s population - some 2.6 billion people - to a
future of diminished opportunity ...
“It is the poor who are bearing the brunt of climate change
..
“Increased exposure to drought, to more intense storms, to
floods and environmental stress is holding back the efforts of the
world’s poor to build a better life for themselves and their children
...
“When people in an American city turn on the air-conditioning
or people in Europe drive their cars, their actions have consequences
[that] link them to rural communities in Bangladesh, farmers in
Ethiopia and slum dwellers in Haiti ...
“Allowing [climate change] to evolve would ...
represent a systematic violation of the human rights of the world’s poor
...
“The world’s poor cannot be left to sink or swim with their
own resources while rich countries protect their citizens behind
climate-defence fortifications ...
“Many of the world’s poorest people ... are already being
forced to adapt to dangerous climate change ...”
And the good news is that putting all this to
rights, by the simple expedient of controlling emissions and so forth, will
cost a piffling 1.6% of GDP between now and 2030, a0 mere two-thirds of
military spending. It's right there in the report on page 23, and in
case you're a slow learner, also on p32, 66 and 67 (thrice). And since
the CIA tells us the world's GDP last year was
$66 trillion, the bill for the next 23 years is a paltry $24 trillion -
that's 24 with twelve zeroes.
Can you just imagine the unremitting joy the world's
poor people will experience when they learn that this sum is going to be
spent to save the world - for their benefit. I don't know exactly how
many they number. The HRDP 07/08 would have you believe the world's
poorest 40% (2.6 billion) are all
“poor”,
but that's clearly nonsensical. On the other hand, the World Food
Programme says 854 million
people in the world don't have enough to eat, which I reckon is a pretty
good proxy for poverty. That's more than the combined
populations of the USA, Canada and the EU.
So here's a question. If you have a budget of
$24 trn to help the poor, this works out at $28,000 each, or about $3 a day
until 2030. Given that another definition of poverty is having to live
on less than one dollar a day, I wonder what a poor person would actually
say if you were to give him/her a choice:
Save
his/her environment from the effects of climate change (maybe, if the
measures actually work)? or
Quadruple
his/her income from now and for the next generation?
Actually, I don't wonder. I know exactly what
the answer would be as I am sure you do. But B has the disadvantage
that it amounts to a debilitating, humiliating, disincentivising handout; moreover what
happens when the money is spent?
As the current
witty ads for Carlsberg say,
“It's not just A or B. There's
probably C”.
It's the old story of give a man a fish and you feed him
for a day, teach him to fish and you feed him for life.
Option C, the answer of what to do about the poor in
the event that climate change does become a serious problem, can be found hidden
within that list of quotes from the UN
report. It's all about the ravages of poverty. People who are
poor can't cope with disasters like we rich people can.
The UN report tells us that
“climate shocks already figure prominently in
the lives of the poor. Events such as droughts, floods and storms are
often terrible experiences for those affected: they threaten lives and
leave people feeling insecure”.
This is true, but the disparity between rich and poor
though bad - as this (pink) chart from the UN report illustrates - is
actually not nearly as bad as it once was.
The document contains the fascinating chart on the right. You can see how,
over the past century, disaster-related death rates have fallen dramatically
as people have become, on average, less poor. Much of this is, of
course, because the rich West has been quick to assist the poor in their
hour of need - just think of how the much-reviled US and Australian armed
forces rushed to the aid of the victims of the 2004 tsunami and the Pakistan
earthquake - whilst others just watched and talked.
Incidentally, Greenpeace tried to refute this chart by
the rather insipid (and incorrect)
claim that a particular constituent member of the CSCCC is “in the pay of
the world’s biggest oil company”. The CSCCC itself says
that its study was funded “entirely from private individuals and
foundations” who had no input to it.
Nevertheless, t
he
UN's solution - and indeed that of all climate-changeologists - remains that
the only way to protect poor people is for rich people to take action such
as controlling emissions.
But here's a revolutionary thought.
What about, instead, making it possible for poor people to become rich so
that they can look after themselves just like we do?
Whoah, I hear you say. That's impossible.
But is it? In mediaeval times, everyone
everywhere bar the tiny ruling élites were miserably poor, just like in many
parts of Africa today. What changed all this was the introduction of
some simple, post-Enlightenment concepts:
Capitalism
Free
markets
Free trade
Property
rights
Law and
contract enforcement
Political
freedom
Democracy
Honest
governance
These - and nothing else - are the
“secrets”
behind the people's riches of America, Europe, Japan, to name but a few.
So why not use some of that $24 trn to encourage
precisely these principles?
Back
pro-democracy organizations that seek to replace dictatorships such as
Robert Mugabe's -
John O'Shea of the excellent Irish charity
GOAL rightly
observes that “it is only when the international community
has the courage to stand up to all dictators that we will begin to see
an end to abject poverty”.
Provide
assistance and training for establishing civic institutions such as
courts, police, parliaments.
Some of
the measures will even make money for the rich world - in particular if
Europe and America would only tear down their despicable agricultural
subsidies and trade barriers, which would provide lucrative markets for
developing world farmers as well as cheaper food for the West.
But there
are other areas where direct investment by the West will make a huge
difference in terms of enabling the poor to get back on their feet and
start making money.
First of
these is undoubtedly to provide clean drinking water and efficient
sewage systems. Kofi Annan and the World Bank, back in 2002,
told
us that US$ 200
billion would be sufficient to provide this to all of humanity and thereby avoid
two million disease-ridden deaths per year in the developing world.
It's a thumping sum, but only 8% of that $24 trn and will have a massive
humanitarian payout for the poor.
Much cheaper, but also with proven
massive life-saving potential, is making available
insecticide-impregnated mosquito nets to protect against Africa's
biggest killer, malaria.
Across the
world, malaria kills more than a million people each year, mainly
African kids under five years of age.
In Kenya, these nets have cut child death
rates by
44% at a cost of just $4-5 per net.
When mothers sleep under the
nets, miscarriages and still births are cut by
up to a third while the number of underweight babies drops by a
quarter.
Other steps in the developing world
should include
an expansion of credit, particularly the microcredit
regimes that have proved so effective in places like Bangladesh, and
encouragement for private companies to invest in infrastructure, both
physical and cyber.
In fact all the things that helped make the
rich world rich.
If you were to ask any penniless peasant from Bangladesh to Chad to
Uruguay whether he would prefer you to concentrate on reducing your
emissions or helping him to become rich, you know very well his answer.
So whom do the wealthy climate
changeologists think they are helping with
their pathetic attempts to counter sunspots and cosmic rays by foregoing Christmas tree lights
and the like?
Certainly not those peasants - but perhaps
their own consciences. As I've said before, climate changeology is the
equivalent of a religious cult, relying on faith and feeling good rather
than evidence and constructive action.
Late Note (7th
December): Columnist Kevin Myers
excoriates the Bali ballyhoo
in typically robust and humorous fashion,
and publishes a comment from me based on this post.
Last week, CNN and Google subsidiary Youtube staged a two-hour debate in
Florida between the eight presidential candidates who are competing for the
Republican nomination for US president in 2008. The debate is available in two hour-long
chunks:
I must say, I found it quite entertaining and revealing. CNN
selected thirty assorted questions from five hundred Youtube
clips apparently submitted at random by the general public, with candidates given ninety seconds
to respond. The questions were varied and many of them were tough, yet
I thought the candidates handled them skilfully, articulately, courteously and with
occasional humour.
Having taken it all in, I intend on balance intend
to vote for Mitt Romney, and if he drops dead Rudy Giuliani, and definitely
not for abject defeatist Ron Paul. Except I'm not American (despite
disparaging accusations to the contrary), so I'm not allowed to vote for
anyone.
I was, however, somewhat taken aback by the blogosphere storm that
followed, when it quickly emerged that at least five of the Youtube
questioners were openly anti-Republican activists, whether in support of
particular Democratic candidates or of militant trade unions or of dubious
Islamic organizations. Blogger Michelle Malkine has the
lowdown, gleaned solely through a little bit of googling. CNN are
furious at having been caught out, and don't know whether to say that
they knew such people were
deliberate plants (but dishonestly withheld this information from the
candidates, audience and viewers) or
they didn't know and so had
been unforgivably slapdash, cavalier and incompetent in selecting the
questions.
This short clip is a compilation of four of the plants ...
When, however, you download the entire debate, you will find no sign of
the intrepid Brigadier General Keith Kerr, who is both angry and gay.
He should have appeared at Minute 43:22 of Part Two - but has found himself
excised.
With India under British rule, Tippoo was an Indian sultan born in 1750 in
the state of Karnataka, who in 1783 he was enthroned as the ruler of Mysore.
He was a constant pain to the British Raj which occupied the country because
he refused to submit to them as did most other leaders and maharajas (in
exchange for continued riches and a quiet life). Instead it was one
war after another. After winning two of them over a period of 23
years, thanks to alliances with the French, Afghanis and Turks, he was
eventually defeated in 1792 by Lord Cornwallis, Britain's Governor General,
to whom he had to submit his two sons as hostages against payment of massive
reparations.
Not long after, Lord Cornwallis's own son went on a tiger hunting expedition
but ended up being killed by a tiger. This understandably caused great
joy to Sultan Tippoo, and even greater pleasure when in 1793 one of his
subjects presented him with a curious, life-size depiction of the happy
event.
Moreover, he was so encouraged he adopted the tiger as his emblem, and had
his throne shaped like a tiger, carrying the head of a life-size tiger in
solid gold.
He went on to
recreate his war machine, modernise his administration on the European
model, build a chain of excellent roads, and construct tanks and dams to
promote agriculture. He introduced new industries, promoted trade and
commerce, established factories, and sent commercial missions to Oman,
Persia and Turkey.
He had once more become a threat to the British.
So in 1799 found himself in yet a fourth Mysore war. This had an even
worse outcome for him, because - apart from being again defeated by Lord
Cornwallis - he ended up dead, with his favourite sword looted.
The British plundered a lot more of Tipoo's
stuff, all of it ending up in London. In particular, within Tipoo's palace
they came across a curious wooden tiger apparently mauling a prostrate
British soldier. It was a long time before the true provenance of
Tipoo's Tiger emerged, and its connection to the hated Lord Cornwallis.
But Tipoo's Tiger is itself an
extraordinary curiosity in its own right, quite apart from its history.
For it is an automaton, combining
movement with two windpipe mechanisms, and still operates despite the
attention of Luftwaffe bombers during the Second World War.
The crank on the
animal's shoulder turns a shaft within the body. A wire connects to this
shaft, which passes down from the tiger between his fore-paws into the
soldier's chest, where it works a pair of bellows, forcing air through a
pipe that exits through the soldier's mouth and emits a whistling wail. The
soldier's hand covers his mouth, but when the air is forced through the pipe
the arm rises in a manner which the artist intended to show helplessness.
Moreover, the movement of the hand in front of the mouth causes the wail to
ululate.
The wail is repeated
as often as the handle is turned, and while this process is going on, an
endless screw on the shaft turns a worm gear slowly round, which has four
cams. Each cam progressively raises the actuator of a larger bellows in the
tiger's head. When the bellows is full, a lead weight falls, closes the
bellows suddenly, expelling air through two pipes which emit a harsh
two-tone growl.
The man in the
meantime continues his wailing, and after a dozen cries the tiger's growl
repeats.
Meanwhile, if you open
up the tiger's body lengthwise (it is hinged), you will reveal a small
musical organ completely unconnected to the growling and wailing mechanism.
The strange keyboard has 18 ivory keys, behind which are two rows of copper
pipes. Each row can be made silent via stops that emerge at the tiger's rear
end. Behind the pipes, on the other flank of the tiger, is another bellows
that provides wind for the organ.
So you can take your pick - whether you
want to play dulcet music or listen to the death throes of a British soldier
being eaten alive by a hungry tiger.
Tippoo Sultan had
been so delighted with the device that he is said to have passed many hours
in his music-room with an attendant turning the handle of the machine, until
the fun ended with is own violent death in 1799.
You can see the original in
the magnificent Victoria & Albert Museum in London, which I visited last
week. I joined up with a small tour in which the curious story was
related by the guide.
Two letters this time. I not surprised the one criticising Saint Al
Gore was not published, but I was astonished to see the Israel/Palestine one
appear which says that the Palestinians simply have to stop attacking Israel
for the problem to cease. I have been trying for over a year to get a
letter published along these lines, and confess that the original concept
was plagiarised from
Mark Humphrys
(with his post-factum permission).
Al Gore Eschews Debate - to the Irish Times So former US Vice-President Al Gore has been and gone to Ireland,
where at a conference in Dublin he spoke on climate change to 400 Irish
and international company executives and investors as well as Green
party ministers. You note, significantly, that all media apart from
official photographers were barred from attending his address, and there
is no suggestion that climate-change dissenters were admitted either
...
Israel and the PalestiniansP! - to the Irish Times Raymond Deane of the Ireland Palestine
Solidarity Campaign once again attempts to portray Israel's self-defence
actions, such as the separation barrier, as unwarranted acts of
aggression. And, typically, he refuses to address the issue in David M.
Abrahamson's letter of November 14th, to which he purports to be
responding. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict could be resolved at
a stroke. The Palestinians merely have to stop attacking Israel ...
- - - - - - - - - - Z I M B A B W E - - - - - -
- - - -
Quote:
“If Mugabe and I walk together into a black
township, only one of us will come out alive. I’m ready to put that
to the test right now. He’s not.”
The late Ian Smith in 2002, the one time RAF fighter pilot hero from
WW2,
who later, as the prime minister of a hugely prosperous Rhodesia,
made his famous Unilateral Declaration of Independence
(from British colonial status),
and continued to rule until forced in 1980 by the British
to relinquish power to Robert Mugabe,
who proceeded to systematically lay waste to the new Zimbabwe.
[Hat tip: Nautical Tim in Dublin]
- - - - - - - - - - S U D A N - - - - - - - - -
-
Quote:
“Shame, shame on the UK. No tolerance:
Execution. Kill her, kill her by firing squad.”
The (no doubt orchestrated)
chant of a Sudanese mob against
the leniency of the
15-day prison sentence handed down by a Sharia court
to volunteer British primary school teacher Gillian Gibbons
for having permitted seven-year-old children
to
vote to name a teddy-bear Muhammed.
So quick to demonstrate against teddy-bears,
cartoons and knighthoods,
it is abjectly shameful that Muslims never protest
the cold-blooded murder of Muslims by fellow-Muslim jihadists.
It is in fact they who bring
ridicule to the Prophet and disrepute to Islam.
- - - - - - - - - - P H I L I P P I N E S - - -
- - - - - - -
Quote ...
Quote:
“There will be no surrender. We are not going
to negotiate ... Dissent without action is consent.”
Filipine
Senator
Antonio Trillanes IV, ex navy lieutenant,
holed up in the luxury Peninsular Hotel in Manila
as part of a farcical attempted coup,
on the point of surrendering, negotiating and ceasing action
by capitulating to the heavily armed forces surrounding the hotel.
For leading another coup attempt in 2003,
- which, coincidentally, also
fizzled out in a Manila hotel -
he and fellow coupsters had been on trial in Manila when,
shortly before the verdict was due to be delivered,
they broke out of the courthouse and invaded the nearby Peninsular.
The Philippines is a constitutional democracy
led by its elected executive president
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo,
daughter of a previous elected president succeeded by Ferdinand
Marcos.
- - - - - - - - - - U S - - - - - - - - - -
Quote:
“Probably, the strongest experience I have in
foreign relations is the fact that I spent four years living
overseas when I was a child in Southeast Asia.”
US presidential hopeful Barak Obama tries to
impress US voters
by revealing the fountainhead of his vast expertise in foreign
affairs
Hillary Clinton announces that she's going to
start attacking Barak Obama,
who is her chief rival for the Democratic nomination
- - - - - - - - - - I R E L A N D - - - - - - -
- - -
Quote:
“Ireland will be the laughing stock of Europe if its
citizens reject next year's European Union treaty referendum.”
Charlie McCreevy, Ireland's EU Commissioner for the Internal Market,
addressing the Association of European Journalists.
What he means is that he, personally,
will be laughed at by his fellow Commissioners,
which he clearly doesn't relish.
The populations of the EU - all but Ireland denied a
referendum
-
will be applauding the Irish if/when they vote No.
Latest Irish polls say 25% are minded to vote Yes,
12% No, while 63% are Don't-Knows.
- - - - - - - - - - U K - - - - - - - - - -
Quote (minute 10): “The House has noted the Prime Minister's
remarkable transformation in the last few weeks from Stalin to Mr
Bean, creating chaos out of order rather than order out of chaos,”
Vince Cable, acting leader of Britain's Lib
Dems,
demolishes Gordon Brown at Prime Minsters Questions on 28 November.
No wonder Lib Dem colleagues are asking him
to enter the race for the party leadership.
English opera star
Tony Henry singing the Croatian national anthem
in front of a crowd of 80,000 at Wembley Stadium,
before Croatia dumped England 3-2 out of the Soccer Euro 2008
competition.
Only thing is, he
should have sung
“Mila
kuda si planina”
(meaning
“You know my dear how we love your mountains”).
What he actually sang was
“My
dear, my penis is a mountain”.
English bravado or English
incompetence?
Either way, the delighted Croatians have adopted him as their soccer
mascot.
[Hat tip: Sporty Graham
in Perth]
Misquote:
“The British Empire at its peak was even better than
America.” **
Rowan Williams, (caricature of an) Archbishop of Westminster,
head of the Anglican Communion,
talks more of his usual anti-American anti-freedom drivel,
in a typical act of
dhimmitude,
while he continues to fear US success in Iraq.
He was giving a (dhimmi) interview to the Muslim magazine
Emel
**The actual headline
reads, “Archbishop of Canterbury: US
‘is worse than the British Empire at its peak’”
Click on the logo
to get a table with
the final World Cup
scores, points, rankings and goal-statistics
What I'm
currently reading
N E W ! This is the definitive account of the
most foul human being ever to have walked the earth. No other
monster comes close - not Stalin, not Lenin, not Hitler, not Pol Pot,
not Genghis Khan, not Ivan the Terrible.
The book is
meticulously researched, magnificently structured, beautifully written -
and drips innocent Chinese blood from almost every one of its 971
riveting pages.
Moa Tse Tung was
obsessed with simply killing as many of his countrymen as he could by
whatever means in order to maintain the remainder in such a permanent
state of terror that the idea of turning on him would never even cross
their wretched minds.
He also starved
peasants in their hundreds of millions in order to confiscate the food
they grew to pay the Soviets for a gargantuan armaments infrastructure.
Most terribly, Mao
was absolutely right. He proved that terror is the most effective
way of retaining power. Too many despots have tried to emulate
him, but none with the same single-minded ferocity.
Disgustingly, people name
restaurants in his honour
+++++
English historian
Charles Foley's
fascinating account of
an honourable man who introduced the concept of Special Forces to the
German military during World War 2.
In
that role, as Hitler's trusted operative, he recounts much derring-do,
such as rescuing Mussolini from mountain top captivity, bluffing the
then Hungarian strongman into surrendering, wreaking covert havoc on the
Allied invasion of France.
Particularly moving is his account, from the German viewpoint,
of the invasion of the Soviet Union and
the stoic, stolid, suicidal resistance of the Russians.
This page-turner of a book concludes with a forecast of the role of
Special Forces in future conflicts, which has turned out to be
surprisingly prescient.
The purpose of this
500-page novel is to present in graphic detail the horrors of living,
fighting and - above all - dying in (and under)
the trenches during
the First World War.
It
does so,
both commendably
and shockingly.
You certainly cannot come away with other than feelings of
deep admiration and sympathy for what those young men endured,
not to mention the distraught families at home, in their tens of
thousands, when the dreaded news of their sons' demise arrived.
But the book is spoilt by the introduction of a storyline which is
sentimental and distracting. Much of it is frankly boring. You
might enjoy the sex which is detailed and graphic, but it's unnecessary.
Also, the interminable, repetitive description, going on for over 40
pages, of being
buried alive in a collapsed tunnel,
just ends up
being irritating.